Macroeconomic Forecasts

      December 2025 Baseline Scenario
      Garanti BBVA Macro Forecasts
  2023 2024 2025 2026
CPI 64,8% 44,4% 31,5% 25,0%
GDP Growth 5,0% 3,3% 3,7% 4,0%
GDP (bnTL) 27.091 44.587 61.926 82.304
GDP (bn$) 1.153 1.358 1.562 1.713
GDP Deflator 68,3% 59,3% 33,9% 27,7%
Per Capita Income ($) 13.008 15.325 17.558 19.116
2-year Benchmark Bond Yield (eop) 39,7% 40,6% 37,5% 31,7%
CBRT One-Week Repo Rate (eop) 42,5% 47,5% 38,0% 32,0%
CBRT Funding Rate (average) 20,5% 49,6% 43,6% 34,3%
USDTRY (eop) 29,4 35,3 43,0 52,0
USDTRY (average) 23,7 32,8 39,5 47,9
EUROTRY (eop) 32,6 36,7 50,0 62,3
EUROTRY (average) 25,7 35,5 44,7 56,7
Currency Basket (eop) 31,0 36,0 46,5 57,1
Currency Basket (average) 24,7 34,1 42,1 52,3
Parity (eop) 1,11 1,04 1,16 1,20
Current Account Balance (bn$) -40,5 -10,0 -20,2 -25,2
Current Account Balance (as of GDP) -3,5% -0,7% -1,3% -1,5%
Exports (fob, bn$) 256 262 269 287
Imports (cif, bn$) 362 344 362 396
Foreign Trade Balance (bn$) -106 -82 -93 -109
Foreign Trade Balance (as of GDP) -9,2% -6,1% -5,9% -6,4%
EU Defined Public Debt / GDP 29,3% 25,8% 22,4% 24,5%
Unemployment Rate 9,4% 8,7% 8,4% 9,2%
CG Primary Balance / GDP -2,6% -1,9% -0,3% -0,2%
CG Budget Balance / GDP -5,1% -4,7% -3,6% -3,7%