| Garanti BBVA Forecasts |
| |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
2029 |
2030 |
| CPI |
44,4% |
30,0% |
21,0% |
18,0% |
16,0% |
15,0% |
15,0% |
| GDP Growth |
3,2% |
3,5% |
4,0% |
4,2% |
4,2% |
4,0% |
4,0% |
| GDP (bnTL) |
43.411 |
59.673 |
76.650 |
94.866 |
115.307 |
138.275 |
165.434 |
| GDP (bn$) |
1.322 |
1.484 |
1.566 |
1.679 |
1.751 |
1.817 |
1.885 |
| GDP Deflator |
58,5% |
32,9% |
23,5% |
18,8% |
16,6% |
15,4% |
15,0% |
| Per Capita Income ($) |
15.450 |
17.246 |
18.119 |
19.334 |
20.065 |
20.732 |
21.418 |
| 2-year Benchmark Bond Yield (eop) |
40,6% |
34,6% |
25,0% |
22,0% |
20,4% |
19,6% |
19,5% |
| 2-year Benchmark Real Rate (Ex-Ante, eop) |
8,1% |
11,2% |
5,9% |
5,1% |
3,8% |
4,0% |
3,9% |
| CBRT One-Week Repo Rate (eop) |
47,5% |
36,0% |
25,0% |
21,0% |
19,0% |
18,0% |
18,0% |
| CBRT Funding Rate (average) |
49,6% |
43,1% |
29,7% |
22,8% |
19,9% |
18,4% |
18,0% |
| USDTRY (eop) |
35,3 |
45,0 |
52,0 |
60,0 |
70,5 |
80,5 |
93,5 |
| USDTRY (average) |
32,8 |
40,1 |
48,8 |
56,3 |
65,7 |
75,9 |
87,5 |
| EUROTRY (eop) |
36,7 |
52,9 |
63,3 |
74,6 |
87,5 |
99,9 |
116,0 |
| EUROTRY (average) |
35,5 |
45,5 |
58,4 |
69,4 |
81,5 |
94,2 |
108,6 |
| Currency Basket (eop) |
36,0 |
49,0 |
57,6 |
67,3 |
79,0 |
90,2 |
104,8 |
| Currency Basket (average) |
34,1 |
42,8 |
53,6 |
62,9 |
73,6 |
85,1 |
98,1 |
| Parity (eop) |
1,04 |
1,18 |
1,22 |
1,24 |
1,24 |
1,24 |
1,24 |
| Current Account Balance (bn$) |
-10,0 |
-19,9 |
-34,8 |
-41,1 |
-45,0 |
-45,0 |
-45,9 |
| Current Account Balance (as of GDP) |
-0,8% |
-1,3% |
-2,2% |
-2,4% |
-2,6% |
-2,5% |
-2,4% |
| Exports (fob, bn$) |
262 |
264 |
286 |
311 |
334 |
352 |
368 |
| Imports (cif, bn$) |
344 |
368 |
411 |
449 |
480 |
501 |
523 |
| Foreign Trade Balance (bn$) |
-82 |
-105 |
-125 |
-138 |
-146 |
-150 |
-155 |
| Foreign Trade Balance (as of GDP) |
-6,2% |
-7,0% |
-8,0% |
-8,2% |
-8,3% |
-8,2% |
-8,2% |
| EU Defined Public Debt / GDP |
25,8% |
25,1% |
27,2% |
28,1% |
30,3% |
30,5% |
31,0% |
| Unemployment Rate |
8,8% |
9,0% |
10,0% |
10,3% |
10,5% |
10,5% |
10,5% |
| CG Primary Balance / GDP |
-1,9% |
-0,8% |
-0,5% |
-0,3% |
-0,1% |
0,0% |
0,1% |
| CG Budget Balance / GDP |
-4,9% |
-4,0% |
-3,6% |
-3,3% |
-3,2% |
-3,1% |
-3,0% |
| CG Budget Balance (bn TL) |
-2.106 |
-2.358 |
-2.785 |
-3.177 |
-3.647 |
-4.241 |
-4.923 |