Macroeconomic Forecasts

    April 2026 Baseline Scenario
    Garanti BBVA Macro Forecasts
  2024 2025 2026
CPI 44,4% 30,9% 28,5%
GDP Growth 3,3% 3,6% 4,0%
GDP (bnTL) 44.587 63.021 85.374
GDP (bn$) 1.358 1.596 1.798
GDP Deflator 59,3% 36,4% 30,2%
Per Capita Income ($) 15.325 18.040 20.173
2-year Benchmark Bond Yield (eop) 40,6% 36,8% 34,3%
CBRT One-Week Repo Rate (eop) 47,5% 38,0% 35,0%
CBRT Funding Rate (average) 49,6% 43,6% 37,2%
USDTRY (eop) 35,3 42,8 52,0
USDTRY (average) 32,8 39,5 47,2
EUROTRY (eop) 36,7 50,3 62,2
EUROTRY (average) 35,5 44,7 55,6
Currency Basket (eop) 36,0 46,6 57,1
Currency Basket (average) 34,1 42,1 51,4
Parity (eop) 1,04 1,17 1,20
Current Account Balance (bn$) -13,0 -30,1 -58,3
Current Account Balance (as of GDP) -1,0% -1,9% -3,2%
Exports (fob, bn$) 262 273 282
Imports (cif, bn$) 344 365 412
Foreign Trade Balance (bn$) -82 -92 -130
Foreign Trade Balance (as of GDP) -6,1% -5,8% -7,2%
EU Defined Public Debt / GDP 25,8% 24,3% 24,9%
Unemployment Rate 8,7% 8,4% 9,0%
CG Primary Balance / GDP -1,9% 0,4% 0,1%
CG Budget Balance / GDP -4,7% -2,9% -3,5%