Macroeconomic Forecasts

    September 2026 Baseline Scenario
    Garanti BBVA Macro Forecasts
  2024 2025 2026
CPI 44,4% 30,9% 30,0%
GDP Growth 3,3% 3,6% 3,0%
GDP (bnTL) 44.587 63.021 85.574
GDP (bn$) 1.358 1.596 1.812
GDP Deflator 59,3% 36,4% 31,4%
Per Capita Income ($) 15.325 18.040 20.333
Benchmark Bond Yield (eop-c) 40,6% 36,8% 36,6%
CBRT One-Week Repo Rate (eop-s) 47,5% 38,0% 36,0%
CBRT Funding Rate (average) 49,6% 43,6% 38,2%
USDTRY (eop) 35,3 42,9 52,0
USDTRY (average) 32,8 39,5 47,0
EUROTRY (eop) 36,7 50,3 60,2
EUROTRY (average) 35,5 44,7 54,5
Currency Basket (eop) 36,0 46,6 56,1
Currency Basket (average) 34,1 42,1 50,8
EURUSD Parity (eop) 1,04 1,17 1,16
Current Account Balance (bn$) -13,0 -30,2 -49,2
Current Account Balance (as of GDP) -1,0% -1,9% -2,7%
Exports (fob, bn$) 262 273 267
Imports (cif, bn$) 344 365 387
Foreign Trade Balance (bn$) -82 -92 -121
Foreign Trade Balance (as of GDP) -6,1% -5,8% -6,7%
EU Defined Public Debt / GDP 25,8% 23,8% 24,2%
Unemployment Rate 8,7% 8,4% 8,2%
CG Primary Balance / GDP -1,9% 0,4% 0,1%
CG Budget Balance / GDP -4,7% -2,9% -3.2%​​