Macroeconomic Forecasts

    June 2026 Baseline Scenario
    Garanti BBVA Macro Forecasts
  2024 2025 2026
CPI 44,4% 30,9% 30,0%
GDP Growth 3,3% 3,6% 3,0%
GDP (bnTL) 44.587 63.021 85.278
GDP (bn$) 1.358 1.596 1.800
GDP Deflator 59,3% 36,4% 31,4%
Per Capita Income ($) 15.325 18.040 20.195
2-year Benchmark Bond Yield (eop) 40,6% 36,8% 36,8%
CBRT One-Week Repo Rate (eop) 47,5% 38,0% 37,0%
CBRT Funding Rate (average) 49,6% 43,6% 38,6%
USDTRY (eop) 35,3 42,8 52,0
USDTRY (average) 32,8 39,5 47,1
EUROTRY (eop) 36,7 50,3 62,2
EUROTRY (average) 35,5 44,7 55,5
Currency Basket (eop) 36,0 46,6 57,1
Currency Basket (average) 34,1 42,1 51,3
Parity (eop) 1,04 1,17 1,20
Current Account Balance (bn$) -13,0 -30,2 -62,8
Current Account Balance (as of GDP) -1,0% -1,9% -3,5%
Exports (fob, bn$) 262 273 263
Imports (cif, bn$) 344 365 398
Foreign Trade Balance (bn$) -82 -92 -134
Foreign Trade Balance (as of GDP) -6,1% -5,8% -7,5%
EU Defined Public Debt / GDP 25,8% 23,8% 26,0%
Unemployment Rate 8,7% 8,4% 8,6%
CG Primary Balance / GDP -1,9% 0,4% -0,2%
CG Budget Balance / GDP -4,7% -2,9% -3,8%