Macroeconomic Forecasts

Baseline Scenario*
Garanti BBVA Macroeconomic Forecasts
  2022 2023 2024 2025
CPI (eop) 64,3% 65,0% 45,0% 28,0%
GDP Growth  5,5% 4,5% 3,5% 3,5%
GDP (Billion TL) 14.985 25.312 40.915 57.410
GDP (Billion USD) 905 1.063 1.115 1.273
GDP Deflator 81,8% 60,8% 62,3% 40,6%
Per Capita Income (USD) 10.659 12.297 12.755 14.403
2-year Benchmark Bond Yield (eop, compound) 10,0% 43,5% 32,3% 24,8%
CBRT One-Week Repo Rate (eop) 9,0% 42,5% 45,0% 32,0%
CBRT Funding Rate (average) 12,7% 20,3% 45,0% 39,4%
USDTRY (eop) 18,64 30,00 42,00 47,50
USDTRY (average) 16,56 23,82 36,50 44,98
EUROTRY (eop) 19,73 32,15 47,19 56,01
EUROTRY (average) 17,38 25,72 40,13 51,91
Current Account Balance (Billion USD) -49,1 -47,1 -36,4 -37,4
Current Account Balance/GDP -5,4% -4,4% -3,3% -2,9%
Foreign Trade Balance (Billion USD) -110 -113 -109 -122
Foreign Trade Balance/GDP -12,1% -10,6% -9,8% -9,5%
CG Primary Balance/GDP 1,1% -3,0% -2,9% 0,2%
CG Budget Balance/GDP -0,9% -5,5% -6,5% -3,6%

*As of December 2023