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September 2025 Baseline Scenario |
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Garanti BBVA Macro Forecasts |
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2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
| CPI |
64,3% |
64,8% |
44,4% |
30,0% |
23,0% |
| GDP Growth |
5,4% |
5,0% |
3,3% |
3,7% |
4,0% |
| GDP (bnTL) |
15.326 |
27.091 |
44.587 |
61.686 |
80.426 |
| GDP (bn$) |
925 |
1.153 |
1.358 |
1.538 |
1.643 |
| GDP Deflator |
95,5% |
68,3% |
59,3% |
33,4% |
25,4% |
| Per Capita Income ($) |
10.882 |
13.008 |
15.325 |
17.293 |
18.341 |
| 2-year Benchmark Bond Yield (eop) |
10,0% |
39,7% |
40,6% |
36,3% |
29,8% |
| CBRT One-Week Repo Rate (eop) |
9,0% |
42,5% |
47,5% |
36,5% |
30,0% |
| CBRT Funding Rate (average) |
12,7% |
20,5% |
49,6% |
43,3% |
32,5% |
| USDTRY (eop) |
18,7 |
29,4 |
35,3 |
45,0 |
52,0 |
| USDTRY (average) |
16,6 |
23,7 |
32,8 |
40,0 |
48,8 |
| EUROTRY (eop) |
19,9 |
32,6 |
36,7 |
52,9 |
63,3 |
| EUROTRY (average) |
17,4 |
25,7 |
35,5 |
45,4 |
58,4 |
| Currency Basket (eop) |
19,3 |
31,0 |
36,0 |
49,0 |
57,6 |
| Currency Basket (average) |
17,0 |
24,7 |
34,1 |
42,7 |
53,6 |
| Parity (eop) |
1,07 |
1,11 |
1,04 |
1,18 |
1,22 |
| Current Account Balance (bn$) |
-46,6 |
-40,5 |
-10,0 |
-18,3 |
-25,4 |
| Current Account Balance (as of GDP) |
-5,0% |
-3,5% |
-0,7% |
-1,2% |
-1,5% |
| Exports (fob, bn$) |
254 |
256 |
262 |
266 |
286 |
| Imports (cif, bn$) |
364 |
362 |
344 |
363 |
396 |
| Foreign Trade Balance (bn$) |
-110 |
-106 |
-82 |
-97 |
-110 |
| Foreign Trade Balance (as of GDP) |
-11,8% |
-9,2% |
-6,1% |
-6,3% |
-6,7% |
| EU Defined Public Debt / GDP |
32,6% |
29,3% |
25,8% |
24,5% |
24,7% |
| Unemployment Rate |
10,5% |
9,4% |
8,7% |
8,4% |
9,2% |
| CG Primary Balance / GDP |
1,1% |
-2,6% |
-1,9% |
-0,3% |
-0,2% |
| CG Budget Balance / GDP |
-0,9% |
-5,1% |
-4,7% |
-3,6% |
-3,7% |