Research Notes
Activity Pulse, January 2021
Industrial Production (IP) increased by 11.4% yoy in calendar adj. terms (14.7% yoy in raw series) in November lower than the market expectation of 8%. Thus confirmed the continuation of strong economic activity given the acceleration in monthly growth of 3.3%, which was 0.7% in October.
Inflation Pulse, December 2021
Consumer prices increased by 13.58% in December significantly above expectations resulting in an annual inflation of 36.1% up from 21.3% the month before. We expect consumer inflation to hover above 40% throughout the year before declining to near 30% at the end of the year, helped by the favorable base impact in December.
Inflation Pulse, November 2021
Consumer prices increased by 2.39% in October surprisingly lower than expectations, resulting in an annual inflation of 19.89% up from 19.58% the month before. Considering global supply side restrictions, currency depreciation and cost push factors accompanied with still robust demand, risks remain clearly on the upside for inflation outlook.
Activity Pulse, October 2021
Industrial Production (IP) grew higher than expectations by 13.8% yoy in calendar adjusted terms and 19.9% yoy in raw series in August. Monthly figure gave a correction by increasing 5.4% mom in August after the -3.4% mom contraction with the holiday effects in July. All sub-sectors gave positive contributions where capital goods production took the lead.
Inflation Pulse, September 2021
Consumer prices increased by 1.25% in September parallel to market expectations, resulting in an annual inflation of 19.58% up from 19.25% the month before. In contrast with expectations, core prices inflation surprised on the upside on the back of strengthening basic and durable goods prices which were weaker in the previous two months. Also, services prices continued to increase across-the-board.
Activity Pulse, September 2021:
Industrial Production (IP) grew remarkably lower than expectations by 8.7% yoy in calendar adjusted terms (vs. 15.2% consensus) in July, whereas it contracted by 2.3% yoy in raw series. The month-on-month figure also implied a large negative contraction of 4.2%, showing weaknesses across-the-board but especially in capital goods production.
Inflation Pulse, August 2021:
Consumer prices increased by 1.12% mom and 19.25% yoy in August, again being realized above expectations on the back of a higher than expected food inflation.
Activity Pulse, 2Q21:
Turkish economy grew by 21.7% in yearly terms in 2Q21, resulting in a growth rate of 14.3% in the first half of the year. Though, the quarter-on-quarter growth rate moderated to 0.9% after growing by 2.2% in 1Q21.
The previous research notes can be found in the following link.